Evidence from Prof Gareth Wyn Jones

School of Environment, Natural Resources and Geography

What is the overall vision for a smarter energy future for Wales? Is it simply about reducing carbon, or is it also about economic regeneration for local communities, and/or tackling fuel poverty?

There is a global necessity to reduce GHG emissions and respond to the challenge of global warming. This seems arcane to many and both 'energy' and invisible 'GHG emissions' abstruse concepts. However we in Wales enjoy an array of renewable energy resources, both terrestrial and marine, which, if properly developed, could contribute to local/community economic development, mitigate health problems, improve our housing stock, tackle fuel poverty and, arguably, make us all more resilient in face of looming global crises. An additional consequence would be to fulfill our international obligations to reduce emissions [cf. the forthcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Paris].
Underpinning this is the necessity of decoupling economic growth/prosperity from both GHG emissions and increased energy use (the latter until, maybe in many decades, we have controlled pollution-free, nulcear fusion).

How can we achieve the right mix of distributed generation resources for the supply of electricity, gas and heat? Should there be specific targets?

As I have outlined in my previous submissions to this Committee, it is possible to make a proximate estimation of demand based on Wales' current annual internal energy requirement of ~100TWh. A mix of technological developments e.g. EV vehicles, either electrified or H2 powered railways, and better space insulation, heating and aeration and energy-efficient white goods, and much improved planning could [cf. Denmark] lead to a ~40% decrease in gross demand. However the % of this utilized as electricity would consequently increase. So to the first approximation one can assume electricity demand will double to about 40TWh per year and a residual heat demand of ~20TWh. The strategic targets over 25 years would then be: [a] a reduction in total energy demand of 40%; [b] production of at least 40TWh of renewable, very low carbon electricity with a significant but as yet unquantifiable % from local/community/dispersed sources (see below) and [c] some 20TWh of heat energy, part of which would be a product of WG policy to increase woodland cover of 400,000ha. There may well also be an export potential both for low carbon electricity and for the renewable technologies themselves.

How much low carbon renewable energy can come from dispersed sources within Wales and how much will still be required from large commercial initiatives or imported?

No accurate answer can be offered and obtaining a realistic answer is one of the major objectives of the putative IWA study. However the answer will also depend on [a] technological advances, [b] public perceptions and [c] financing packages for renewables and energy saving. Renewables are not impact free; each has its our attendant issues e.g. small-scale hydro is resisted usually by the fishing lobby and /or by some conservation interests, on-shore wind and PVs by landscape perceptions. However I don't think people appreciate the impact of doubling electricity supply and demand will have. If a large proportion of the growing demand could be met locally so reducing the need for transport by more and more huge pylons cf. Wylfa B and Anglesey, then public reaction to energy saving and local renewable production and its economic benefits might be positive.

Is there a need for comprehensive survey patterns of energy consumption and of Wales’ renewable energy potential?

Yes.

Do energy transition processes that rely heavily on the views of existing organisations risk being shaped by the short-term interests of those organisations?

Again yes. Importantly the global energy market is grossly distorted. The recent 2015 IMF report 'Counting the Cost of Energy Subsidies' estimates that fossil hydrocarbon burning is 'subsidised' to $5.3 TRILLION per year (6.5% of global GDP) due to a mixture of direct subsidies, tax breaks (see George Osborne's views on fracking) and, dominantly, off-balance sheet externalities i.e. effects on health and global warming resulting, globally, in thousands of deaths each year. These distortions are little discussed cf the outcry about modest subsidies for renewables, but reflect huge vested interests. A move of dispersed more local energy generation clearly challenges commercial companies such as the National Grid and the DNOs. In this the emerging approach of UK government differs significantly from that of some mainland European countries and appears to focus on large centralised electricity generating plants (be they gas [fracked or imported] or nuclear or imported biomass]. I refer to this as the "CEGB model" compared with the dispersed, smart grid model evolving in Denmark and parts of Germany (see also below).

How can we achieve a whole systems approach (joining up, reducing demand, energy efficiency, renewable generation, grid, storage, ownership, subsidy etc.)?

[a] We need urgently a comprehensive study such as that proposed by the IWA (see attachment). [b] We need the political vision and will. [c] We need well thought-out policies in all fields and long term funding programmes which enjoy cross party support and amount to a Welsh 25-year programme. I would emphasise that energy use and policy permeates all aspects of government and our lives (see Y Faner Newydd article)

How can the necessary behavioural change by achieved?

Paradoxically we need to appeal to self interest and to concerns for the welfare of our children and grandchildren and give people the hope for more productive, fulfilling lives. We need to show that it is not all gloom and doom and there exist alternative ways which reduce the risk to us as individuals and as families and to mankind globally. I would argue that the prospect of dispersed renewal energy has the potential to achieve this while stimulating energy awareness and saving. Consideration should be given to media games and television programmes on energy saving and generation e.g. TV competitions for the best energy saving community (rural and urban), original innovative schemes leading to BAFT Wales-type glitzy annual events!!

What can be done using existing executive/legislative powers?

Much can be done with the very limited powers of the National Assembly as individual schemes will have low capacity within WG competence. Planing, transport and land use are largely WG matters but the 'retained powers' model with Wales receiving the status of Scotland would allow a much more comprehensive and coherent approach.

What is the scope for public investment/support for innovation to encourage new forms of local renewable energy?

Finance is vital. Much of UK government policy appears predicted on attracting foreign capital investment and consequential ownership at very favourable rates to the investor e.g. Hinkley C Nuclear Power Station.
Any community/local schemes must find funding despite the distorted energy economy i.e. a serious difficulty is that the current price of hydro carbon energy by excluding the externalities is creating a false market (see IMF). WG couldeell have a critical role in this. Lord Stern and others advocate a carbon tax of >£50 per tonne but this can only be implemented on an EU or global scale. I suggest that this Committee seeks advice from financial experts and seeks comparative data from other countries and regions. At stake is an economic and social development model which seeks to empower local enterprises, be they individually or community owned, to develop endogenously as opposed to a model creating a long-term dependence on foreign investment and capital. Wales has experienced the latter and its withdrawal when circumstances change. Currently money is historically cheap.

What are the skills/training requirements and implications to ensure a successful transition? To what extent are these skills already available in Wales?

Greater skills appear required (outside a few companies) in grid management, in how to set up municipal grids, in smart grids and electricity storage technologies e.g. new batteries and in marine source technologies - tide flow and tidal barrages. There are also opportunities in small scale AD and in creating financial packages. There is also a lack of real expertise in insulation of existing buildings in an area of high rainfall and humidity and many stone-built and solid brick wall dwellings. Cavity wall insulation is not appropriate in much of Wales but is sold without constraint.